Guides Math You Can Do at the Table
Implied Odds at $1/2: Paid, or Fooling Yourself
Implied odds are the justification for most bad calls in low-stakes poker and the reason for most of the good ones. The difference is whether you did the arithmetic or just felt optimistic.
The Question, Stated Properly
Pot odds ask whether a call is profitable if the hand ends now. Implied odds ask a second question: how much more money has to arrive on later streets to make this call break even?
The arithmetic is one rearrangement. If you need X percent to call and you only have Y percent, the extra money required is roughly (call / equity) - (pot + call). In plain terms: divide your call by your chance of hitting, then subtract the pot you are already being offered. The difference is what has to show up later.
A Worked Example
Pot is $60. Villain bets $40. You have a gutshot, 4 outs, about 9 percent to hit on the turn. Your call is $40 into a pot that will be $140.
Raw price: you need 28.6 percent and you have 9. Nowhere close. So how much has to arrive? 40 divided by 0.09 is about $444. Subtract the $140 already there and you need roughly $300 more to come, at the moment you hit, from a player who will still be paying you.
If he has $300 behind and is the kind of player who pays off a made straight with top pair, that call is defensible. If he has $120 behind, it is not, and no amount of optimism changes that. The number is checkable at the table in about eight seconds, and checking it is the entire skill.
The Implied Odds drill asks the two questions in order: how much has to arrive later, and is that amount even in his stack. The second question is the one players skip.
Three Conditions, All of Which Must Hold
- The money exists. Implied odds are capped by the effective stack. You cannot win $300 from a man with $120. This kills most implied-odds arguments in short-stacked pots on the spot.
- He will put it in. A tight player who folds to any turn aggression is not paying you off. A calling station is. The same draw against two different opponents is two different calls.
- Your hand will be paid, not feared. A completed obvious flush on a three-flush board gets folded to. A hidden straight or a set gets paid. Disguise is worth real money, and it is the main reason a set is a better draw than a flush draw at the same equity.
Reverse Implied Odds
The mirror image, and it is more expensive than most players believe. Some hands make you money when you miss and lose you money when you hit. Second-best hands, in other words.
- Weak top pairs out of position. You call three streets and win a medium pot or lose a large one.
- Non-nut flushes. The times you get stacked, you were drawing to a hand that pays exactly when you are beaten.
- Low straights on a board where a higher one is live. The classic set-up.
The practical rule: subtract implied odds from hands that make second-best hands, do not add them. Reverse implied odds are why KJ offsuit is a losing hand and 76 suited is not, despite KJ having more raw equity.
Where Live Games Differ
Live low-stakes games have better implied odds than online games at the same stake, for a real reason rather than a folkloric one: the field is more willing to call large bets with one pair. That does not make every draw a call. It moves the line, and the line is still a number.
Position multiplies the whole calculation. In position you can see the turn cheaply and get paid on the river. Out of position you check, he checks back, and the money you priced the call on never arrives. Same hand, same equity, different call.
The Two-Question Version
Before you call a draw, answer these out loud in your head. How much more do I need? Is that number in his stack, and is he the kind of player who puts it in? If either answer is no, the call is a fold, and you have saved yourself the discovery on the river.
Questions People Ask About This
What are implied odds in poker?
The money you expect to win on later streets when your draw hits, added to the pot odds you are being offered right now. They only exist if the money is in the opponent stack and he is willing to put it in.
How do I calculate implied odds quickly?
Divide your call by your chance of hitting, then subtract the pot you are already being offered. The remainder is what has to arrive later.
What are reverse implied odds?
The money you lose on later streets when you improve to the second-best hand. They apply to weak top pairs, non-nut flushes and low straights, and they should be subtracted rather than added.